04-07 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain

WCRP Seasonal Prediction Position Paper
Day 1 - Monday 4th June 2007


- Mr. David Rodriguez - Director of Servei Meteorologic de Catalunya
- Introduction to Workshop and TFSP Exp - B. Kirtman (COLA)

Key-Note Addresses - Chair: B. Kirtman

-Dynamical Seasonal Prediction: Prospects, promises, and challenges, J. Shukla (IGES/COLA)
- Synthesis of Seasonal Prediction Skill, T. Palmer (ECMWF)
- ENSEMBLES: Seamless seasonal-to-decadal forecasting,  P. Doblas Reyes (ECMWF)
- Why should we care about the stratosphere? M. Baldwin (NWRA)
- Validation of Seasonal Forecasts: Statistical Methods and Downscaling,  J. M. Gutierrez (Uni. Cantabria)
- Towards integrating applications within end-to-end seamless ensemble prediction systems - A case for Africa first?, A.. Morse (Uni.Liverpool)

Session I - Synthesis of Seasonal Prediction Skill

Assessment of Seasonal Prediction Skill - Chair: J. Kinter

- More Certain Uncertainty in Seasonal Climate Forecasts, L. Goddard (IRI)
- Predictions of temperature and rainfall anomalies with the ECMWF Seasonal Forecast System-3, F. Molteni (ECMWF)
- Overview of the APEC Climate Center for Climate Information Services - C.-K. Park (APEC)
- ENSO-related variability in Northeast Asia - An advantageous location for seasonal predictability, T. Ose (MRI-JMA)
- Seasonal forecasting in Canada,  G. Boer (CCCMa)
- IAP Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System and its Applications, Z. Lin (IAP)
- Recent Development in Ocean-Atmosphere Modelling for Seasonal Prediction in Australia, G. Wang (BMRC)
- Seasonal Prediction Activities at the South African Weather Service, W. Landman (S.African Weather Service)



The Venue

Servei Meteorologic de Catalunya
at the Barcelona World Trade Centre

  spw1   spw2
  spw3 spw4 



  wcrp logo   clivar logo   escudo SMC
  MEC   escudo UB   ACA350
  wmo logo   CLIPS Logo   ESF
  USCLIVAR LOGO   NSF logo   NASA logo
  NOAA logo    


Day 2 - Tuesday 5th June 2007

Coupled Model Performance - Chair M. Davey

- Impact of ocean initial conditions on seasonal forecasts skill,  M. Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)
- Coupled Model Data Assimilation and ENSO Forecasting, A. Rosati (GFDL)
- Understanding El Niño in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models,  E. Guilyardi (LOCEAN/IPSL & Walker Institute)

Session II - Seasonal Prediction Skill and the Coupled System

Stratospheric Processes and Seasonal Prediction (SPARC) - Chair: M. Baldwin

- The role of the Stratosphere in seasonal prediction: Background and session overview,  A. Charlton (Dept Meteorology, Uni. Reading)
- Downward propagation from the stratosphere: Physical mechanism and potential for seasonal prediction, B. Christiansen (DCC-DMI)
- Predictability of Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling during Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events in the Northern Hemisphere, H. Mukogawa (DPRI, Kyoto Uni.)
- Occurrence patterns of stratospheric sudden warming events in view of the stratosphere-troposphere coupled system and their predictability, T. Hirooka (DEPS, Kyushu Uni.)
- Stratosphere-troposphere interaction and plans for the GloSea4 Seasonal Forecast system, A. Scaife (Hadley Centre, UKMO)
- Prospects for wintertime European seasonal prediction,  W. Norton (The Walker Institute; PCE Investors)

Poster Session I & II - SP Skill and the Coupled System

Land-Atmosphere Interactions and Seasonal Prediction (GEWEX) - Chair: R. Koster

- GLACE-2: A Study of the Impacts of Land Initialization on Forecast Skill, R. Koster (NASA GSFC)
- Land surface contribution to seasonal climate variability and predictability, H. Douville (Météo-France)
- Seasonal Hydrological Prediction: Activities and progress under GEWEX's Hydrologic Application Project, E. Wood (Princeton Uni.)

Cryospheric Processes and Seasonal Prediction (CLIC) - Chair: J. Christensen

- Seasonal Forecast of Antarctic Sea Ice, X. Yuan (LDEO, Columbia Uni.)
- Seasonal Predictability over the Arctic Region and exploring the role of boundary conditions (SPAR), R. Benestad (NMI)
- Verification of hemispheric-wide winter temperature forecasts based on fall snow and atmospheric anomalies, J. Cohen (AER Inc.)

Day 3 - Wednesday 6th June 2007

Session III - Seasonal Prediction: Applications and Regional Skill

Methods and Applications - Chair: J.M. Gutierrez

- Verification of Seasonal to Secular Climate Forecasts,  D. Stephenson (Uni. Exeter)
- On Downscaling Methodologies for Seasonal Forecast Applications, V. Moron (CEREGE)
- Ensembles of crop yield at seasonal and multi-decadal timescales, A. Challinor (Uni. Leeds)
- Exploring potential sources of seasonal predictability for climate-driven diseases, X. Rodo (Uni. Barcelona)
- ENSEMBLES Web Portal for Seasonal Statistical Downscaling. Description and Demo,  A. Cofino (Uni. Cantabria)
- WMO CLIPS Project : A Global Framework for Seasonal Forecast Applications, K. Kolli (WCP)

African Climate System and Seasonal Prediction (VACS) - Chair: A. Morse

- Taking the Shorter Route: Climate Prediction and Africa, R. Washington (Oxford Uni.)
- Development and Applications of Climate Diagnostic and Prediction Tools in Africa, L. Njau (ACMAD)
- Progress in Seasonal Rainfall Predictin for the Greater Horn of Africa Region - P. Omondi (IGAD CPAC)
- Seasonal Climate Prediction Activities at the Drought Monitoring Centre - B. Garanganga (SADC-DMC)

American Monsoon System and Seasonal Prediction (VAMOS) - Chair: I. Cavalcanti

- An overview of Seasonal Forecast-related issues over the Pan-VAMOS domain, C. Saulo (CIMA, Uni. Buenos Aires)
- Do seasonal forecasts reproduce the link between early and peak monsoon rainfall in South America?  A. Grimm (Uni. Federal do Parana)
- Summer rainfall forecast skill over South America derived from WCRP SMIP-2 model results, L. Muniz Alves (CPTEC)
- Performance of Seasonal Forecast in South America during the 2006-2007 period: progress, challenges and the impacts on Society - R. Martinez (CIIFEN)

Asian-Australian Monsoon System and Seasonal Prediction (AAMP) - Chair: E. Jin

- How accurately do coupled climate models predict the Asian-Australian Monsoon interannual variability?  B. Wang (Uni. Hawaii)
- ENSO and IOD predictions in the SINTEX-F coupled GCM, J.-J. Luo (JAMSTEC)
- EU-Ensembles Project: Prediction skill of Indian monsoon rainfall in two anomalous years, 1994 and 1997,  M. Rajeevan (NCC, IMD Pune)
- Seasonal Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, S. Gadgil (CAOS Indian Institute Sci.)

Session IV - Future Directions & Showcase TFSP Experiment

- Cross-cutting WCRP Theme on Decadal Prediction, T. Palmer
- TFSP Experiment - B. Kirtman