Experiments associated with the CHFP
The fundamental experimental design is to mimic real prediction, in the sense that no “future” information can be used after the forecast is initialized. For example, the PROVOST or DSP experiments would be excluded because they use observed SST as the simulation evolves, whereas the SMIP experiment could be included as subset since no future information is used as the forecast evolves.
|Seasonal Prediction Intercomparison Project|
|Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment|
|Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment 2|
|Stratosphere-resolving Historical Forecast Project|
|Sea Ice Historical Forecast Project|
Potential subjects for diagnostic sub-projects
The following is an abbreviated list of potential sub-projects. It is anticipated that a large number of addition sub-projects will be implemented as the experimental results become available.
- Limit of Predictability Estimates: One potential estimate for the limit of predictability is to determine when a particular forecast probability density function (pdf) is indistinguishable from climatological pdf of the forecasts
- ENSO mechanism diagnostic: Recharge oscillator versus delayed oscillator, role of stochastic forcing, westerly wind events
- impact of the AO on seasonal predictability
- regional predictability
- local land surface predictability
- extreme events
- monsoon predictability
- diurnal cycle in ocean
- diurnal cycle in the atmosphere
- coupled feedbacks
- intra-seasonal oscillations
|Eric Guilyardi||Atmosphere feedbacks and ENSO predictability||-|
The diagnostic sub-projects will include extensive interactions with the applications community and the regional panels within CLIVAR, as well as the GEWEX, SPARC and CliC WCRP Projects. These interactions and collaborations are viewed as critical elements of the implementation plan and are strongly encouraged.