Past large volcanic eruptions have shown significant climate impacts on continental scales and in the oceans years after (e.g. Stenchikov et al 2009; Otterå et al 2010; Maher et al 2015; Fischer et al 2007). Volcanic eruptions have also been identified to play a major role for climate predictions and can affect forecast skill on a global and regional scale (Timmreck et al., 2016; Bellucci et al 2015; Meehl et al., 2015). Given the current threat of a sudden volcanic eruption such as Mt. Agung, we propose a coordinated multi-model effort to predict the climate evolution five years ahead following the next major eruption. This will use measurements of volcanic aerosols coordinated by WCRP SPARC SSiRC (Stratospheric Sulphur and its Role in Climate) together with multi-model multi-year climate forecasts developed by the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near-Term Climate Prediction (GC-NTCP) and by the WCRP Decadal Climate Prediction Panel (DCPP) (Smith et al., 2013, Boer et al., 2016).
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Last Updated: 21 February 2018