Oslo, Norway, 5-7 October 2015

Download the PDF version of the programme here.

Day 1: Monday 5 October 2015
08:30-09:00 Registration and coffee
09:00-09:40 Opening
09:00-09:10 Jana Sillmann (CICERO, Norway)
Welcome, organizational matters
09:10-09:20 Solrun Figenschau Skjellum (Norwegian Environment Agency)
Opening remarks
09:20-09:25 Boram Lee (WCRP, Switzerland)
The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
09:25-09:30 Sonia Seneviratne (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
The WCRP Grand Challenges on Climate Extremes
09:30-09:40 Brian Golding (UK Met Office)
High Impact Weather Project (HIWeather)
09:40-12:45 Session A-I: Large-scale circulation
Chair: Jana Sillmann, Rapporteur: Nathalie Schaller
09:40-10:25 Tim Palmer (University of Oxford, UK)
Circulation extremes and climate change
10:25-10:40 Friederike Otto (University of Oxford, UK)
Thermodynamics vs. dynamics: the importance of attributing circulation changes
10:40-11:05 Coffee break
11:05-11:20 Pascal Yiou (LSCE-IPSL, France)
Analogues of atmospheric circulation to probe rare and extreme events
11:20-11:35 Stephan Pfahl (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
The importance of atmospheric blocking for European temperature extremes
11:35-11:50 Dim Coumou (PIK, Germany)
Weakened flow, persistent circulation and prolonged heat waves in boreal summer
11:50-12:00 Pandora Hope (Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Australia)
Why was it so hot? Australia’s record heat in late spring 2014
12:00-12:45 Discussions
12:45-14:30 Lunch and poster session
Introduction of posters (3 min intro per poster presenter)
  • Lukas Gudmundsson (ETH Zürich, Switzerland)
    North Atlantic and human influence on European drought risk
  • Nathalie Schaller (University of Oxford, UK)
    Predictability of the NAO in seasonal hindcasts from 1900-2009
  • Tim Cowen (University of Edinburgh, UK)
    Synoptic and oceanic conditions during heat wave events: a case study for southern Australia
  • Noelia Otero Felipe (Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS), Germany)
    Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall using dynamics-based indices
  • Tobias Erhardt (Technische Universität München, Germany)
    Standardized drought indices: A novel uni- and multivariate approach
  • Hoffman Cheung (Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment,
    City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China)
    Observed and Future Changes of Ural blocking and East Asian Winter Climate
  • Fumiaki Ogawa (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway)
    Impacts of sea ice / SST changes for the observed climate change – GREENICE project
14:30-18:00 Session A-II: Land/snow feedback
Chair: Sonia Seneviratne, Rapporteur: Lukas Gudmundsson
14:30-15:15 Robert Vautard (LSCE-IPSL, France)
Changes in dynamical and physical processes in explaining recent extreme events
15:15-15:30 Herve Douville (National Centre for Meteorological Research, France)
Land surface contributions to model uncertainties in heat wave and drought projections
15:30-15:45 Elisabeth Kendon (UK Met Office)
The changing character of rainfall at convection permitting scales
15:45-16:00 Diego Miralles (Ghent University, Belgium)
Evidence of the effect of soil desiccation during the escalation of temperatures in mega-heatwaves
16:00-16:30 Coffee break
16:30-16:45 Yvan Orsolini (Norwegian Institute for Air Research)
Impact of snow cover and sea ice on subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts
16:45-17:00 Wim Thiery (ETH Zürich, Switzerland)
Hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria under present and future climate conditions
17:00-18:00 Discussions
19:00 Dinner (Festningen)
Day 2: Tuesday 6 October 2015
09:00-12:30 Session B: Prediction
Chair: Noel Keenlyside, Rapporteur: Erik Kolstad
09:00-09:45 Francisco Doblas-Reyes (Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, Spain)
Predicting climate extreme events in a user-driven context
09:45-10:00 Geert Jan van Oldenborgh (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute)
Seasonal prediction of extreme weather: lesson from attribution
10:00-10:15 Javier Garcia Serano (Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain)
Predictability of the Euro-Atlantic climate from Arctic sea ice variability
10:15-10:40 Coffee break
10:40-11:00 Antje Weisheimer (University of Oxford, UK)
Prediction of extreme climate events on seasonal and sub-seasonal timescales
11:00-11:15 Erik Kolstad (Uni Research, Norway)
Intraseasonal persistence of European surface temperatures
11:15-11:30 Noel Keenlyside (Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre, University of Bergen, Norway)
The North Atlantic Ocean role in shaping regional climate change
11:30-12:30 Discussions
12:30-14:00 Posters and lunch
14:00-17:30 Session C: Model performance
Chair: Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Rapporteur: Tobias Erhardt
14:00-14:45 Chris Ferro (University of Exeter, UK)
Statistical evaluation of forecasts
14:45-15:00 Marion Mittermaier (UK Met Office)
Feature-based diagnostic evaluation of global NWP forecasts
15:00-15:15 Gabi Hegerl (University of Edinburgh, UK)
Evaluating mechanisms of temperature extremes
15:15-15:30 Erich Fischer (ETH Zürich, Switzerland)
A plethora of noise - The challenge of evaluating models and constraining projections
given abundant internal variability
15:30-16:00 Coffee break
16:00-16:15 Francis Zwiers (PCIC Canada)
Evaluation of dynamical or dynamically influenced phenomena in RCMs
16:15-16:30 Peter Guttorp (University of Washington, USA and Norwegian Computing Center, Norway)
Projecting local sea level rise
16:30-17:30 Discussions
19:00 Tapas, drinks and socializing (The Mini Bottle Museum)
Day 3: Wednesday 7 October 2015
09:00-12:30 Breakout sessions
09:00-09:30 Jana Sillmann, Sonia Seneviratne, Noel Keenlyside and Thordis Thorarinsdottir
Introduction of the breakout sessions
09:30-12:30 Breakout group discussions
12:30-13:30 Lunch
13:30-15:00 Summary and conclusions
13:30-14:00 Summaries of breakout sessions
14:00-15:00 Final discussion and wrap-up
15:00 End of workshop and safe trip home