Oslo, Norway, 5-7 October 2015
Download the PDF version of the programme here.
| Day 1: Monday 5 October 2015 | |
| 08:30-09:00 | Registration and coffee |
| 09:00-09:40 | Opening |
| 09:00-09:10 | Jana Sillmann (CICERO, Norway) Welcome, organizational matters |
| 09:10-09:20 | Solrun Figenschau Skjellum (Norwegian Environment Agency) Opening remarks |
| 09:20-09:25 | Boram Lee (WCRP, Switzerland) The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) |
| 09:25-09:30 | Sonia Seneviratne (ETH Zurich, Switzerland) The WCRP Grand Challenges on Climate Extremes |
| 09:30-09:40 | Brian Golding (UK Met Office) High Impact Weather Project (HIWeather) |
| 09:40-12:45 | Session A-I: Large-scale circulation Chair: Jana Sillmann, Rapporteur: Nathalie Schaller |
| 09:40-10:25 | Tim Palmer (University of Oxford, UK) Circulation extremes and climate change |
| 10:25-10:40 | Friederike Otto (University of Oxford, UK) Thermodynamics vs. dynamics: the importance of attributing circulation changes |
| 10:40-11:05 | Coffee break |
| 11:05-11:20 | Pascal Yiou (LSCE-IPSL, France) Analogues of atmospheric circulation to probe rare and extreme events |
| 11:20-11:35 | Stephan Pfahl (ETH Zurich, Switzerland) The importance of atmospheric blocking for European temperature extremes |
| 11:35-11:50 | Dim Coumou (PIK, Germany) Weakened flow, persistent circulation and prolonged heat waves in boreal summer |
| 11:50-12:00 | Pandora Hope (Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) Why was it so hot? Australia’s record heat in late spring 2014 |
| 12:00-12:45 | Discussions |
| 12:45-14:30 | Lunch and poster session |
Introduction of posters (3 min intro per poster presenter)
|
|
| 14:30-18:00 | Session A-II: Land/snow feedback Chair: Sonia Seneviratne, Rapporteur: Lukas Gudmundsson |
| 14:30-15:15 | Robert Vautard (LSCE-IPSL, France) Changes in dynamical and physical processes in explaining recent extreme events |
| 15:15-15:30 | Herve Douville (National Centre for Meteorological Research, France) Land surface contributions to model uncertainties in heat wave and drought projections |
| 15:30-15:45 | Elisabeth Kendon (UK Met Office) The changing character of rainfall at convection permitting scales |
| 15:45-16:00 | Diego Miralles (Ghent University, Belgium) Evidence of the effect of soil desiccation during the escalation of temperatures in mega-heatwaves |
| 16:00-16:30 | Coffee break |
| 16:30-16:45 | Yvan Orsolini (Norwegian Institute for Air Research) Impact of snow cover and sea ice on subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts |
| 16:45-17:00 | Wim Thiery (ETH Zürich, Switzerland) Hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria under present and future climate conditions |
| 17:00-18:00 | Discussions |
| 19:00 | Dinner (Festningen) |
| Day 2: Tuesday 6 October 2015 | |
| 09:00-12:30 | Session B: Prediction Chair: Noel Keenlyside, Rapporteur: Erik Kolstad |
| 09:00-09:45 | Francisco Doblas-Reyes (Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, Spain) Predicting climate extreme events in a user-driven context |
| 09:45-10:00 | Geert Jan van Oldenborgh (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute) Seasonal prediction of extreme weather: lesson from attribution |
| 10:00-10:15 | Javier Garcia Serano (Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain) Predictability of the Euro-Atlantic climate from Arctic sea ice variability |
| 10:15-10:40 | Coffee break |
| 10:40-11:00 | Antje Weisheimer (University of Oxford, UK) Prediction of extreme climate events on seasonal and sub-seasonal timescales |
| 11:00-11:15 | Erik Kolstad (Uni Research, Norway) Intraseasonal persistence of European surface temperatures |
| 11:15-11:30 | Noel Keenlyside (Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre, University of Bergen, Norway) The North Atlantic Ocean role in shaping regional climate change |
| 11:30-12:30 | Discussions |
| 12:30-14:00 | Posters and lunch |
| 14:00-17:30 | Session C: Model performance Chair: Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Rapporteur: Tobias Erhardt |
| 14:00-14:45 | Chris Ferro (University of Exeter, UK) Statistical evaluation of forecasts |
| 14:45-15:00 | Marion Mittermaier (UK Met Office) Feature-based diagnostic evaluation of global NWP forecasts |
| 15:00-15:15 | Gabi Hegerl (University of Edinburgh, UK) Evaluating mechanisms of temperature extremes |
| 15:15-15:30 | Erich Fischer (ETH Zürich, Switzerland) A plethora of noise - The challenge of evaluating models and constraining projections given abundant internal variability |
| 15:30-16:00 | Coffee break |
| 16:00-16:15 | Francis Zwiers (PCIC Canada) Evaluation of dynamical or dynamically influenced phenomena in RCMs |
| 16:15-16:30 | Peter Guttorp (University of Washington, USA and Norwegian Computing Center, Norway) Projecting local sea level rise |
| 16:30-17:30 | Discussions |
| 19:00 | Tapas, drinks and socializing (The Mini Bottle Museum) |
| Day 3: Wednesday 7 October 2015 | |
| 09:00-12:30 | Breakout sessions |
| 09:00-09:30 | Jana Sillmann, Sonia Seneviratne, Noel Keenlyside and Thordis Thorarinsdottir Introduction of the breakout sessions |
| 09:30-12:30 | Breakout group discussions |
| 12:30-13:30 | Lunch |
| 13:30-15:00 | Summary and conclusions |
| 13:30-14:00 | Summaries of breakout sessions |
| 14:00-15:00 | Final discussion and wrap-up |
| 15:00 | End of workshop and safe trip home |