There is a 50:50 chance of the annual average global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level for at least one of the next five years – and the likelihood is increasing with time, according to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and produced by the United Kingdom’s Met Office, the WMO lead centre for these predictions. The development of this near-term prediction capability was driven by the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near-term Climate Prediction, which supported research and development to improve multi-year to decadal climate predictions and their utility to decision makers.
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