Workshop on Extremes in Climate Prediction Ensembles (ExCPEns)

Weather and climate extremes have enormous impacts on society, and are becoming more severe and frequent as the world warms. Associated risks of heat waves/cold spells, droughts/floods, wind and other extremes are continually evolving in response to climate variations superimposed on forced climate changes. By providing many realizations of climate-system evolution from observation-based initial conditions, climate prediction ensembles offer a powerful tool to better quantify these risks, delineate possibilities for unprecedented extremes, and understand the underlying physical mechanisms and attribution of such events.

The purpose of this workshop, which will be held from 25 to 27 october 2021 and followed by an ECS training and discussion forum (27-28 October 2021), is to provide a focal point for current research aimed at exploiting subseasonal, seasonal, annual to decadal and longer-term prediction ensembles to improve the prediction and understanding of extreme weather and climate events. Topics to be addressed include: 

  •    prediction of specific extreme events at extended and longer ranges (>10 days) 
  •    quantifying the risks of extremes, including unprecedented events, in the current and future climate 
  •    impacts and physical mechanisms of unprecedented extremes in climate prediction ensembles

To submit an abstract and to apply for the ECS training and discussion forum, visit the workshop website

Deadline for abstract submission and application for the ECS training: June 30, 2021

To read the brochure, click here