While it is often hard to detect differences in overall skill between different forecast systems, there is now clear evidence that seasonal forecasts benefit from inclusion of the stratosphere. Recent work by Butler et al. (2016) uses historical forecasts from the WCRP Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP) to compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that did and did not resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.
Seasonal forecasts benefit from inclusion of the stratosphere (19.04.2016)
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