Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals

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harbour crane PIXABAYHow will different choices of the pre-industrial baseline affect the likelihood of nations exceeding the 1.5 °C or 2 °C temperature thresholds? Find out in this new article by Andrew Schurer and others:

 

Schurer, A. P., Mann, M. E., Hawkins, E., Tett, S. F. B. and Hegerl, G. C., 2017. Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals. Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/nclimate3345

This paper acknowledges the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)