harbour crane PIXABAYHow will different choices of the pre-industrial baseline affect the likelihood of nations exceeding the 1.5°C or 2°C temperature thresholds? Find out in this new article by Andrew Schurer and others:


Schurer, A. P., Mann, M. E., Hawkins, E., Tett, S. F. B. and Hegerl, G. C., 2017. Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals. Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/nclimate3345

This paper acknowledges the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)