Since its approval in 2016, the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near-Term Climate Prediction has delivered the following products:
- A white paper on decadal climate prediction:
"Towards Operational Predictions of the Near-Term Climate". Nature Climate Change, v.9, pp. 94–101, https://rdcu.be/bhO7o , 2019
- The achievement of World Meteorological Organization recognition for operational decadal predictions (in collaboration with the IPET-OPSLS and the WMO GDPFS, among others)
- A paper on the "Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C", published in Geophysical Research Letters
- The initial concept note on its goals and work plan
Further products and deliverables are in preparation:
- The production of standards, verification methods and guidance for near term predictions in collaboration with the WMO Commission for Basic Systems (CBS)/Commission for Climatology (CCl) Expert Team, which are seamless with long-term projections.
- The initiation and issuance of a real-time Global Decadal Climate Outlook once each year (with 2 years of dry running before issue) in consultation with CBS-CCI and following the template of the Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU) for seasonal predictions.
- New scientific results from meetings and workshops dealing with research focussed on Near-term Climate Prediction (ongoing).
Last Updated: 19 June 2019