Proposed products and deliverables:

  • A white paper (in e.g. EOS, BAMS, Science overview, etc.) that announces the creation of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near-term Climate Prediction, its motivation, aims and research activities (2016).
  • New scientific results from meetings and workshops dealing with research focussed on Near-term Climate Prediction (ongoing).
  • The production of standards, verification methods and guidance for near term predictions in collaboration with the WMO Commission for Basic Systems (CBS)/Commission for Climatology (CCl) Expert Team, which are seamless with long-term projections (2018).
  • The achievement of World Meteorological Organization recognition (2019) for operational decadal predictions (as for example currently informally coordinated through the UK Met Office's multi-model decadal forecast exchange).
  • The initiation and issuance of a real-time Global Decadal Climate Outlook once each year (2016 onwards, with 2 years of dry running before issue) in consultation with CBS-CCI and following the template of the Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU) for seasonal predictions.

The main outcome from the the Grand Challenge on Near-term Climate Prediction will be the raising of awareness within the scientific community and relevant stakeholders of predictions of the near-term evolution of climate due to both anthropogenic influence and natural variability.