The common event attribution and assessment (CEAA) project of the WCRP Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change (EPESC) Lighthouse Activity seeks to identify extreme weather and climate events for coordinated study. The project will identify selected extreme events and provide information on the time period covered by the event, the region where the event occurred, and extremes metrics to characterise the event. The global extreme event attribution and assessment community are invited to conduct analyses of these events. The goal is to have many different groups assess the same event, using the diverse set of approaches that are used in the study of extreme events.
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With the increased application of novel methods for attribution and assessment of extreme events, the Common Event Attribution and Assessment project seeks to identify selected events for coordinated study by groups using different approaches to facilitate comparison of those approaches.
Aims
The Common Event Attribution and Assessment project aims to:
- develop and share frameworks that advance the comparison of results from different methodologies for quantifying the causes and likelihoods of selected extreme events
- analyse and share results from each of the selected events using common metrics and formats
- provide fora such as workshops and community papers that seek to elucidate and understand the differences between different attribution and assessment approaches and the consequences of those differences for the results obtained
- collaborate with other extreme event attribution and assessment projects to advance community understanding of extreme events
The project is primarily oriented at research and understanding of attribution methods and their consequences. However the learning from this project could also inform operational attribution and best practice guidance, in collaboration with the GEP Working Group on Event Attribution.
Terms
To achieve this, the project will:
- Develop a framework for defining extreme events and standardising (where possible) the data and assumptions used to frame the event so that different methodologies are applied to the same event.
- Define actual historical extreme events for common study and offer open invitation to all interested groups to apply their methodologies to the events.
- Collect and analyse results from participating groups and share with the community.
- Provide open fora to discuss and interpret the results for the common events selected. This could include case studies and workshops on selected events, research publications, and synthesis studies.
Share results and key learnings from the project with the GEP Working Group on Event Attribution and others seeking to establish best practice guidelines for attribution and assessment of climate extremes.
