Co-leads: Anca Brookshaw (ECMWF, UK) and Patrick Heimbach (University of Texas at Austin, USA)

Tighter integration between the global climate observing system and the climate modelling community is necessary to address a number of interrelated challenges. These include

  1. understanding and quantifying the uncertainty in key climate metrics, focusing on interannual to decadal climate variations;
  2. providing a quantitative framework for designing or optimizing an observation system suitable for detecting and monitoring interannual to decadal climate variations;
  3. understanding and overcoming persistent Earth System model and re-analysis biases through the use of comprehensive estimation methods that bring modelling and (re-)analysis closer together and lead to a better usage of the diverse, heterogenous observing networks underlying the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS).

The joint consideration of observation and modelling challenges provides a conceptual framework for identifying major gaps and opportunities for progress in both monitoring and observing Earth System variability and change. The benefits of this tighter integration will first be explored by focusing on a number of specific case studies. These case studies will be used to develop a systematic methodology that can be applied subsequently to assess a wider set of events.