Co-leads: Doug Smith (Metoffice, UK) and Scott Osprey (University of Oxford, UK)

Multi-annual forecasts are now routinely issued on the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction website and in the WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (GADCU) for 2021. However, improved understanding and attribution of predicted signals is needed to gain further confidence in the forecasts. The objectives of Theme 2 are:

  1. to establish and apply attribution methodologies to help explain multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system;
  2. to design and build an operational capability using these attribution methods. Outputs of this system will be integrated with forecasts issued by WMO.