Working Group 3 - Prediction and Modeling

Vision

To advance understanding and modeling of fundamental precipitation processes, from local to global scales, by improving the representation of precipitation in models, fostering improved predictions and projections across temporal and spatial scales.

Mission

WG3 aims to identify, understand, and reduce the sources of errors in simulated precipitation intensity, phase, and duration in weather and climate models, through modeling efforts, cross-scale analyses, and integration of observations and theory.

Scientific Question

What are the sources of errors in model precipitation intensity, phase, and duration in meteorological and climate models and how can we reduce them to improve predictions and projections of precipitation at different temporal and spatial scales?

Objectives

• Coordinate multi-scale analysis and precipitation forecasts, and support the establishment of multi-source observational databases, along with common evaluation metrics.
• Coordinate modeling studies on precipitation predictability, prediction techniques and applications at various time scales
• Leverage storm resolving model ensembles developed globally or regionally (e.g., Digital Earth, CORDEX-FPS, GEWEX) and a hierarchy of models.
• Leverage the outcomes of the CMIP6 and CMIP7 frameworks with a focus on models with simulations at various resolutions (e.g., km-scale, 0.25⁰, and 1⁰).
• Promote the evaluation and improvement of precipitation process representation through intercomparisons and targeted diagnostics.

Near-term activities

1. Conduct a literature review identifying research gaps and outlining key issues in precipitation modeling, prediction, and process understanding. The review will focus on the four GPEX storms, while also considering other relevant systems.
2. Assess ongoing and recent efforts in precipitation modeling to identify strategies and opportunities for addressing research gaps revealed in the previous activity.

WG3 - Members

Last Updated: 24 October 2025