]{s۶;̽LiY#qbi6t< QpH%AsE$LNS pp^~z/ސt !?ŃӞ#hɔQ+\&)N{3d“̓9b3n2CpKN#4N{kL>|7̲!_lp3 sPG-.YiӀMN{}\ߡ@^AJ7#a:ÒOeSw!EdNjC7 O{{7JͰ1fxx2I=:IceNi2HNi,d"a0aVxʖgþ:8<>ϟ\o o_7pzﺮ#i q$>8acBTjUf}| R B^"xvF'}~ O@8ܔr;[[cYQG;OS[2rxϧ=~gN747(k)~=w5YL Ύ+QM\TSp;NG' VwI?vwҪ 5vY3Ё{w]T)i 9\b e^HQ A< B PeB-7ɓOםSʕkF[6&nʰ0+T FC\\NȄ 5&sw ]ЀSg1&x1^;=rg,;? "1%|OI@ހ`riș&B>֥9%+uyt-`O 0O-{6DT#iM\:\/Paz&h3y?|&d}YE. dJ$닍Furݒ˕Ew"7# +r0:+O1 rT>S6(I i`#Ԯ`af+ z p&TQ7нU>j2 &YJ#(EO_-K$пW:2BXjJ.<\&._2K CR 8tj?sXiIlr gr\KG& ӞBeFRXwip#2n~+|]ݬی§^F?5fVNutw{dF(BG4УnZf 3WVOV%ϕ<|>T>9lQkv%5 z&K0#q )8yeu?;L34\9]g^ӨZ# KvL&`|N|@fd\;n0\'э`7 ׽9!1c\eDܽZrRanaLҌEhRjʘ I*EPܑ+J⎚i^J_P %%s=S7z=P9΃*8HUW,Nmޥ-Jy h·܃>^*\&TQQ*xWiNS8[bܡ*Wa4fLX1ʱlG3SJ8dK_kGGGeWk\Jo< Ѷ"A\~~Or'XļVɑǭj:pow+`-ZSx}2.os _,hF挄`<2 AcMğNȷi teQӰ|0h 2$y&>u 8DDݬwhl*yd:E"/a[SXejO83fe^q Iv/ykĻ^kOzár =Ber\_ 6S ̑/,V\$QQ:u:Ltqy p/ԭ.7ֵ5|ѭy>y|r=|2U[AkmʐjZ/.֪2ݾ`X|#2I1S|fsN;[MRkPC8ev-m)knjxýRTWS8z*axWqc\2.5SI0kCp&"53ҩػ7{|~uɱC:n[Z;x-Ze4 ]U"Mx^8xlN&PǶaE$K2ϴÃds:\65.-UF)֒,w84w R@3ee gj_kl!C>{czoJxok[lȡ{z(ր;/4M6# U9ϦԳѦ 0VlrV,B5z3tM:($w\ڹ#jxHk._&F^|fc!~΅Gޔy\ε)\Ex 'h( -rd,cγ|J Apd,o^dv&˚NV*͡ep\sp ^noNMyܧ tBv֯RmNÅŽ噻NA+o L,PYa=99^C;ضI]UU/tPn A*(5:̰1F YWM%&S~ivw ;L7t70n$П\xF^.clSȶdUA@ehM+9o 7XL.>o"RN.N///9Ll뒍nqDZy7j-R2o}^i/-c뉶OFT/L[絮@S +IB׍<4G[EV7~up\wlޙ[zEM%ml]pmSVzn~SXr:䗃2,Cڥ~D~Im72>;54śädAA\f@.˼;:lIAυ4#C(+jb/y u.eE عm_IVvnec8À! )5=w"_h?ey图pʰ:}$ weǼ&/4]8}Wv\'}*&y&2C%DC:n)8sd,nU:vTke6bVUAJ!K,&t5ͧct0:; ft<6'RfFXڻ' _%&4=Hơu€ak~G.7ͱ@GߧCPK-d@G /cFԔ9̧T[0#:tn'+>5dlm\&i$_$%4A1u>Je1z|SgD|Cge$r2Ӧ[(LN(;M'ct;RDW!x 8dB =k27iha9 CĮ.SLZ9vvUfSO+OOs|#ukH"uwC3"l0D_'<41~13`Mz||IM?^c2A0#nT`аДR@}~mkzo\B O-OU4o=!L83\"hC*IRb?H u3ELK?9+fڢ>E@Q3HLO 2~8D107a1T|>5&*V]qw*e7s]od>wF6/lK3(L% ů?&[~M-Aޢ.FN,TRO갠0!d[J.Z0ds)dTA]")Ťn5tכ0ntl EMMVVYJ k0  ;@ 91^ԱzaJ@\2/ [סmMTu!'.ԇ$\ͺw0kvL $]^->O]lýsy::܎ߩ/.bb *Sh:ыU΁sGLyC> OI'Q7v᤾&R,)4K;T`8؍_թ=&TY_aFw:T*U`޷,]mF0]jߨ vineÖ7b?w?uǟzV٫kK/!r"tϣ.8{o)XXtA=?fr

WCRP Decadal Prediction


Overview & News | Cross-Cut Activity | CMIP5 Decadal Prediction | CLIVAR Activities | Research Programs | Publications



WCRP Publications

Report of the International Workshop on Seasonal to Decadal Prediction, 13-16 May 2013, Toulouse France

Decadal Prediction Cross Cut - Annual Progress Report for JSC29, 2008

Co-ordinated experiments to study multi-decadal prediction and near-term climate change. Version 2.0, December 2007

Cross-Cutting Topic: Decadal Prediction - Presented to JSC28, 2007

Decadal climate variability and the thermohaline circulation - Presented to CLIVAR SSG14, 2006

CLIVAR Publications

CLIVAR Workshop Report Earth System Initialization for Decadal Prediction, 4-6 November 2009, Knmi, De Bilt, The Netherlands, 2010, ICPO Publication Series, 145, WCRP Informal Report No. 3/2010, 14pp.

AMOC Implementation Plan: Assessing Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability: Implications for Rapid Climate Change
US CLIVAR AMOC Planning Team, 2007.

CLIVAR/GODAE Global Synthesis Evaluation Framework
T. Lee and D. Stammer, May, 2006, Version 3.1.

Data and Bias Correction for Decadal Climate Predictions
CMIP-WGCM-WGSIP Decadal Climate Prediction Panel, International CLIVAR Project Office Publication Series 150, 5pp, 2011.


Hurrell, J. W., Bader D., Delworth, T., Kirtman, B., Meehl, J., H.L.Pan, and B. Wielicki: 2007.
White Paper on Seamless Prediction. Available here.

Hurrell, J. W., Delworth, T., Danabasoglu, G., Drange, H., Griffies, S., Holbrook, N., Kirtman, B., Keenlyside, N., Latif, M., Marotzke, J., Meehl, G. A., Palmer, T., Pohlmann, H., Rosati, T., Seager, R., Smith, D., Sutton, R., Timmermann, A., Trenberth, K. E., and J. Tribbia, 2010:
Decadal Climate Prediction: Opportunities and Challenges, in Proceedings of OceanObs'09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society (Vol. 2), Venice, Italy, 21-25 September 2009, Hall, J., Harrison D.E. & Stammer, D., Eds., ESA Publication WPP-306.

Keenleyside, N. S., Latif, M., Jungclaus, J., Kornblueh, L., and E. Roeckner, 2008:
Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector, Nature, 453, 84-88, doi:10.1038/nature06921.

Latif, M., Delworrth, T., Dommenget, D., Drange, H., Hazeleger, W., Hurrell, J., Keenlyside, N., Meehl, G. A., and R. Sutton, 2010:
Dynamics of Decadal Climate Variability and Implications for its Prediction, in Proceedings of OceanObs'09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society (Vol. 2), Venice, Italy, 21-25 September 2009, Hall, J., Harrison D.E. & Stammer, D., Eds., ESA Publication WPP-306.

Meehl G. A., and K. A. Hibbard, 2007:
A strategy for climate change stabilization experiments with AOGCMs and ESMs. Aspen Global Change Institute 2006 Session. Earth System Models: The Next Generation (Aspen, Colorado, July 30-August 5, 2006. WCRP Informal Report No 3/2007; ICPO Publication No. 112; IGBP Report No. 57.

Meehl, G. A., L. Goddard, J. Murphy, R. J. Stouffer, G. Boer, G. Danabasoglu, K. Dixon, M. A. Giorgetta, A. Greene, E. Hawkins, G. Hegerl, D. Karoly, N. Keenlyside, M. Kimoto, B. Kirtman, A. Navarra, R. Pulwarty, D. Smith, D. Stammer, and T. Stockdale, 2009:
Decadal prediction: Can it be skillful? Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., DOI: 10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1.

Murphy, J., Kattsov, V., Keenlyside, N., Kimoto, M., Meehl, M., Mehta, V., Pohlmann, H., Scaife, A., and D. Smith, 2009:
Towards Prediction of Decadal Climate Variability and Change, WCC-3 Decadal Climate Variability Session White Paper.

Palmer et al, 2008:
Calibration of probabilistic climate-change projections of precipitation using seasonal reforecasts. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc, to appear.

Pohlmann, H., J. Jungclaus, A. Koehl, D. Stammer, and J. Marotzke, 2008:
Improving climate predictability through the initialization of a coupled model with the GECCO oceanic synthesis. Journal of Climate, in preparation.

Reason, C.J.C., W. Landman, W. Tennant, 2006:
Seasonal to decadal prediction of southern African climate and its links with variability of the Atlantic Ocean, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 87, 941-955.

Smith, D. M., S. Cusack, A. W. Colman, C. K. Folland, G. R. Harris, and J. M. Murphy, 2007:
Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science, 317, 796-799.

Troccoli, A., and T. N. Palmer, 2007:
Ensemble decadal predictions from analysed initial conditions. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. A-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, 365, 2179-2191.




Last update: 12.06.2013 by Anna Pirani
Site powered by WMO and IPSL-WCRP Support Unit (France)