WCRP Decadal Prediction


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Research Programs

The UK RAPID WATCH program, the successor of RAPID, is funded by NERC to continue MOC monitoring at 26.5°N and further north at the western boundary, from 2008 until 2014. A focus added to RAPID WATCH, not present in RAPID, is the use of the MOC observations in decadal MOC and climate predictability.

The EU FP7 project THOR, aimed at understanding the stability of the THC, has a focus on the decadal predictability of the MOC/THC.

The EU FP7 project COMBINE includes a work package on the ocean and seaice initialization of climate models for decadal prediction; and a work package devoted to the decadal predictions themselves. The starting points are the recent papers on decadal predictability and prediction by European labs (Smith et al., 2007; Troccoli and Palmer, 2007; Keenlyside et al., 2008; Pohlmann et al., 2008).

The German Ministry for Education and Research is funding a CLIVAR-related collaborative project "The North Atlantic as Part of the Earth System: From System Comprehension to Analysis of Regional Impacts", which has as one of its foci decadal predictability.

NCAR, GFDL, and MIT are collaborating on the initialization of climate models for decadal-timescale predictability studies. A joint proposal is under review.