Posters Session C25

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Session C25: Predictions and Predictability on Sub-seasonal to Decadal Time Scales
(conveners: A. Solomon, N. Keenlyside, M. Kimoto, T. Stockdale)

- Contributions to this session are poster presentations
- Date: Wednesday 26 October
- Time: 10h30-12h00
- Location: Exhibit Area

Use the Conference Manager Search Tool for finding poster abstracts (search will retrieve list of all abstracts for the session in which the desired abstract is found)

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Poster Number

Alessio Bellucci, Silvio Gualdi, Enrico Scoccimarro, Antonio Navarra, Simona Masina, Andrea Storto   Decadal climate predictions with the CMCC-CM coupled OAGCM initialized with ocean analyses   W11A
Anna Borovikov   Improving CFS seasonal prediction   W81B
Yehui Chang   Verification of Decadal Forecasts: Attribution of the Extreme U.S. East Coast Snowstorms of 2010   W04B

Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Masahide Kimoto, Masayoshi Ishii, Masahiro Watanabe, Toru Nozawa, Takashi Mochizuki, Hiroaki Tatebe, Takashi T Sakamoto, Yoshiki Komuro, Hideo Shiogama, Masato Mori, Sayaka Yasunaka, Yukiko Imada, Hiroshi Koyama, Masato Nozu

  Team MIROC: Predictability of a stepwise shift in Pacific climate during the late 1990s in hindcast experiments by MIROC   W19B
Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Masahide Kimoto, Masahiro Watanabe, Masayoshi Ishii, Takashi Mochizuki   Team MIROC: Multi-year predictability of tropical Atlantic climate variability   W17B
Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Yukiko Imada, Hiroaki Tatebe, Yoshiki Komuro, Masahide Kimoto   Team MIROC: Multidecadal modulation of tropical instability wave activity during the last few decades   W18B
Judah Cohen, Mathew Barlow, Lowell
Vladimir Alexeev,
Jessica Cherry
  Polar Climate Predictability Seasonal to Multi-decadal: Are the Two Most Recent Harsh Northern Hemisphere Winters Manifestation of Anthropogenic Global Warming in the Arctic?   W76B
Dan Collins, R. Wayne Higgins   Ensemble precipitation calibration and extreme event prediction   W14A
Susanna Corti   Decadal climate predictions with the ECMWF coupled system   W11B
Samo Diatta, Andreas Heinrich Fink   Analysis and causes of non-stationary teleconnections impacting on West African Monsoon rainfal   W86B
Paul Dirmeyer, David Straus, James L Kinter, Michael Fennesy, Benjamin A Cash, Timothy DelSole, Eric L Altshuler, Daniel A Paolino, Zhichang Guo, Bohua Huang, J Shukla   Predictability in a changing climate ? comparison of intraseasonal to seasonal forecasts in a pre-industrial versus modern background climate   W75A
Ramon Fuentes Franco   Identification of sources of predictability and climatic variability for precipitation over Mexico   W83A
Dimitrio Giannakis, Andrew Majda   Long-Range Forecasts Using Data Clustering and Information Theory   W78A
Robert Gillies, Shih-Yu Wang, Marty Booth   Subseasonal prediction of valley inversions in the Intermountain West   W03A
Lisa Goddard, Paula Gonzalez, Simon Mason, Arthur Greene   Verification of Decadal Forecasts: A Verification Framework for Interannual-to-Decadal Prediction Experiments   W02B
Paula Gonzalez, Lisa Goddard, Arthur M Greene, Doug M Smith   Verification of Decadal Forecasts: Assessment of changes in regional precipitation and temperature regimes associated with decadal variability and the ability of climate models to reproduce them   W04A
Arthur Greene, Lisa Goddard, Paula Gonzalez   Verification of Decadal Forecasts: Climatology via simulation   W05B
Zhichang Guo, Paul Dirmeyer; Tim DelSole   Relative contribution of sea surface temperature and soil moisture to subseasonal atmospheric predictability   W72A
Yoo-Geun Ham   Verification of Decadal Forecasts: Generation of Bred Vectors for the Atlantic Decadal Oscillation using the NASA/GMAO GEOS-5 AOGCM   W06B
Helen Hanlon, Gabriele C Hegerl, Simon Tett   Predicting changes in the probability of extreme heatwave events in Europe   W74A
Ed Hawkins, Buwen Dong, Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton   Verification of decadal forecasts: The interpretation and treatment of biases in decadal climate predictions   W09A
Harry Hendon, Li Shi   Current capability to predict the Indian Ocean Dipole with seasonal forecast systems   W84A
Martin Hoerling, James Hurrell, Arun Kumar, Laurent Terray   On North American Decadal Climate for 2011-2020   W77A
Marika Holland, Steven Vavrus, David Bailey   Seasonal predictability of Arctic sea ice   W24B
Bhaskar Jha   An analysis on estimates of ensemble size for seasonal prediction Bhaskar Jha and Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA Camp Spring, MD 20746   W86A
Liwei Jia, Timothy DelSole   Robust Multi-year Predictability on Continental Scales   W71B
Christina Karamperidou, Mark A Cane, Andrew T Wittenberg, Upmanu Lall   ENSO's Decadal Dance viewed through a Local Lyapunov lens   W14B
Noel Keenlyside, Jin Ba, Jennifer Mecking, Thomas Martin, Annika Reintges, Wonsun Park, Mojib Latif   Uncertainties in Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability   W02A
Jürgen Kröger, Wolfgang A Mueller, Jin-Song von Storch   Fidelity and Predictability of Decadal Climate Variations in ECHAM/MPIOM: Impact of Different Ocean Reanalyses   W84B
Vinay Kumar, T. N. Krishnamurti   Prediction of south Asian monsoon rainfall using multimodel ensemble scheme   W73A
Tim LaRow   Impact of Two Different SST Climatologies on North Atlantic Re-forecasts   W82B
June-Yi Lee, Jin-Ho Yoo, Young-Mi Min, Soo-Jin Shon, Hye-In Jeong, Bin Wang   Multi-Model Ensemble Seasonal Hindcast (1983-2003) and Real-Time Prediction (2007-2011) at APCC   W10A
Xin-Zhong Liang, Ligang Chen, Shenjian Su, Fengxue Qiao   Regional CWRF Optimized Ensemble Precipitation Prediction over the United States   W73B
Hosmay Lopez, Ben Kirtman   Impact of Interactive Westerly Wind Bursts in CCSM3   W83B
Gill Martin, Richard C Levine, Andrew G Turner, Nicholas P Klingaman, Sean F Milton, Martin Willett   Predicting the Asian summer monsoon and its variability on a range of timescales   W74B
William Merryfield, Woo-Sung Lee, Slava Kharin, George Boer, John Fyfe   Verification of Decadal Forecasts: CCCma decadal forecasts for CMIP5   W05A
Young-Mi Min, June-Yi Lee, Jong-Seong Kug, Bin Wang, Vladimir N. Kryjov, Soo-Jin Sohn, Jin-Ho Yoo, Jai-Ho Oh   Improvement of the APCC probabilistic multi-model seasonal prediction by systematic error correction and uncertainty estimation   W81A
Takashi Mochizuki, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Masahide Kimoto, Masayoshi Ishii, Hiroaki Tatebe, Yoshiki Komuro, Takashi T Sakamoto, Masahiro Watanabe, Masato Mori   Team MIROC: Decadal prediction using recent series of MIROC global climate model   W16A
Takashi Mochizuki, Masayoshi Ishii, Masahide Kimoto, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Masahiro Watanabe, Toru Nozawa, et al.   Team MIROC: Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction   W18A
Rym Msadek, Tom Delworth, Tony Rosati, Keith Dixon   Verification of decadal forecasts: results from the GFDL coupled model experiments   W08B
Gustavo Naumann   Study on intraseasonal variability of maximum and minimum temperature in Southeastern South America   W68B
Ousmane Ndiaye, Neil Ward, Wassila Thiaw   Predictability of seasonal Sahel rainfall using GCMs and lead-time improvements through a coupled model   W75B
Matt Newman, Prashant Sardeshmukh, Cecile Penland, Michael Alexander, Kathy Pegion   Empirical models of climate prediction and predictability from sub-seasonal to multi-decadal scales   W13B
Nour-Eddine Omrani, Noel Keenlyside   Stratosphere boosts wintertime atmospheric response to Atlantic decadal variability   W68A
Kazuyoshi Oouchi, Masaki Satoh, Tomoe Nasuno, Hiroshi Taniguchi, Yohei Yamada, Hirofumi Tomita, Chihiro Kodama, James L Kinter III, Deepthi Achuthavarier, Julia Manganello   Intra-seasonal oscillation and its control over tropical cyclones in the high resolution global atmospheric models   W79A
Yvan Orsolini, Retish Senan, Ana Carrasco, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Antje Weisheimer, Frederic Vitart, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Rasmus Benestad   Impact of the autumn snow cover on high latitude climate variability   W82A
Kathleen Pegion, Ben P Kirtman   Multimodel Ensemble Prediction on Intraseasonal Timescales  


Peitao Peng, Arun Kumar, Huug van den Dool   An analysis of OCN and EOCN methods of climate forecast of CPC   W10B
Cecile Penland   The NAO and Stochastic Forcing of North Tropical Atlantic SST   W23B
Ola Persson   Relative Roles of Wind Forcing and Ice Dynamics for Predicting Short-Term Sea-Ice Movement as Estimated from In-Situ Observations   W72B
Thomas Phillips, Robert S Nerem, Benjamin Hamlington, Robert Leben, Tad Pfeffer   Estimating the influence of sea level rise uncertainty on future sea level rise projections   W15A
Holger Pohlmann, Doug M Smith, Magdalena A Balmaseda, Noel S Keenlyside, Simona Masina, Daniela Matei, Wolfgang A M¸ller, Philippe Rogel, Eduardo D da Costa   Verification of Decadal Forecasts: The mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system   W09B
Xu Qun   Significant Progress of Seasonal Prediction on Summer Monsoon Rainfall of Central East China Through 43 Recent Years (1968- 2010)   W69A
Jouni Räisänen   Climatic nowcasting: incorporating model-simulated climate change to estimates of present and near-future climate   W85B
Pallav Ray   On the Relative Roles of Circumnavigating Waves and Extratropics on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)   W76A
Jon Robson, Rowan Sutton, Doug Smith   Initialised predictions of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic in the mid 1990s   W80A
Takashi T Sakamoto, Yoshiki Komuro, Teruyuki Nishimura, Masayoshi Ishii, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hideo Shiogama, Akira Hasegawa, Takahiro Toyoda, Masato Mori, Tatsuo Suzuki, Yukiko Imada, Toru Nozawa, Kumiko Takata, Takashi Mochizuki, Koji Ogochi, Seita Emori, Hiroyasu Hasumi, Masahide Kimoto   Team MIROC: MIROC4h - a new high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model   W17A
Takashi T Sakamoto, Miki Arai, Yoshiki Komuro, Hiroaki Tatebe, Masayoshi Ishii, Takashi Mochizuki, Masato Mori, Yoshimitsu Chikamoto, Yukiko Imada, Hideo Shiogama, Tatsuo Suzuki, Toru Nozawa, Masahide Kimoto   Team MIROC: Reproducibility and predictability of decadal climate variations in MIROC   W20A
Takashi T Sakamoto, Yoshiki Komuro, Tatsuo Suzuki, Hiroyasu Hasumi, Masayoshi Ishii, Masahiro Watanabe, Toru Nozawa, Tokuta Yokohata, Teruyuki Nishimura, Koji Ogochi, Seita Emori, Masahide Kimoto   Team MIROC: Sea-ice climatology and trends in twentieth-century simulations by new MIROC coupled models   W20B
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Christophe Cassou, Elodie Fernandez, Laurent Terray   Model drift dependence on the ocean initialization in the CNRM-CERFACS "near-term" forecast exercise   W87A
John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Slava Kharin   Can the potential predictability associated with sudden stratospheric warmings can be realized?   W85A
Hideo Shiogama, Seita Emori, Takashi Mochizuki, Sayaka Yasunaka, Tokuta Yokohata, Masayoshi Ishii, Toru Nozawa, Masahide Kimoto   Team MIROC: Possible influence of volcanic activity on the decadal potential predictability of the natural variability in near-term climate predictions   W19A
Hideo Shiogama, Masato I Nodzu, Toru Nozawa, Koji Ogochi, Teruyuki Nishimura, Masayoshi Ishii   Team MIROC: Variability in the 20th century simulation with a coupled climate model under the different forcing conditions   W21B
Doug Smith, Sarah Ineson, Adam A Scaife, Jeff R Knight, James C Manners, Nick J Dunstone, Lesley J Gray, Joanna D Haigh   Solar Forcing of Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Variability   W69B
Amy Solomon, Matthew Newman   Verification of Decadal Forecasts: Decadal predictability of tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean temperature trends due to anthropogenic forcing in a coupled climate model   W06A
Cristiana Stan, Balachandrudu Narapusetty   The role of atmospheric noise on the predictability of Pacific decadal variability   W01A
Timothy Stockdale   Representation of the stratosphere in ECMWF seasonal forecasting systems   W71A
Yuhei Takaya, Tamaki Yasuda, Tomoaki Ose, Masayuki Hirai, Shuhei Maeda   Seasonal Forecast System of Japan Meteorological Agency: Physical Basis of Seasonal Forecasting in the Asian Region   W24A
Xiaohui Tang   Effect of weather noise on the spring barrier of ENSO prediction   W13A
Hiroaki Tatebe, Masao Kurogi, Tatsuo Suzuki, Yukio Tanaka, Hiroyasu Hasumi, Masayoshi Ishii, Masahide Kimoto, Takashi T Sakamoto   Team MIROC: Toward predicting the decadal changes of mesoscale eddy activities in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence zone   W21A
Hiroaki Tatebe, Takahiro Toyoda; Toshiyuki Awaji; Nozomi Sugiura; Shuhei Masuda; Hiromichi Igarashi; Yuji Sasaki; Yoshihisa Hiyoshi; Yoichi Ishikawa; Takashi Mochizuki; Takashi Sakamoto; Yoshiki Komuro; Tatsuo Suzuki; Teruyuki Nishimura; Masato Mori; Yoshimitsu Chikamoto; Sayaka Yasunaka; Yukiko Imada; Miki Arai; Masahiro Watanabe; Hideo Shiogama; Toru Nozawa; Akira Hasegawa; Masayoshi Ishii; Masahide Kimoto   Team MIROC: Impact of the Assimilation of Sea Ice Concentration Data on an Atmosphere-Ocean-Sea Ice Coupled Simulation of the Arctic Ocean Climate   W22A
Hiroaki Tatebe, Sayaka Yasunaka, Masayoshi Ishii, Masahide Kimoto, Takashi Mochizuki, Hideo Shiogama   Team MIROC: Influence of XBT Temperature Bias on Decadal Climate Prediction with a Coupled Climate Model   W22B
Hiroaki Tatebe, Masayoshi Ishii; Takashi Mochizuki; Yoshimitsu Chikamoto; Takashi Sakamoto; Yoshiki Komuro; Masato Mori; Sayaka Yasunaka; Masahiro Watanabe; Koji Ogochi; Tatsuo Suzuki; Teruyuki Nishimura; Masahide Kimoto   Team MIROC:Initialization of the climate model MIROC for decadal prediction with hydrographic data assimilation   W23A
Tomoki Tozuka, Takeshi Doi, Takafumi Miyasaka, Noel S Keenlyside, Toshio Yamagata   Key Factors in Simulating the Equatorial Atlantic Zonal SST Gradient in a CGCM   W79B
Bart van den Hurk, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Gianpaolo Balsamo   Effect of soil initialization on seasonal forecast skill - 2000-2010   W12B

Frederic Vitart

  Monthly Forecasting at ECMWF   W78B
Masahiro Watanabe, Tatsuo Suzuki, Ryouta O'ishi, Yoshiki Komuro, Shingo Watanabe, Seita Emori, Toshihiko Takemura, Minoru Chikira, Tomoo Ogura, Miho Sekiguchi, Kumiko Takata, Dai Yamazaki, Tokuta Yokohata, Toru Nozawa, Hiroyasu Hasumi, Hiroaki Tatebe, Masahide Kimoto   Team MIROC: Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5: Mean States, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity   W16B
Masahiro Watanabe, Minoru Chikira, Yukiko Imada, Masahide Kimoto   Team MIROC: Convective Control of ENSO Simulated in MIROC5   W03B
Jason Webster, Rowan Sutton, Buwen Dong, Ed Hawkins, Doug Smith, Jon Robson   Verification of Decadal Forecasts: Pacific Decadal Predictability in the U.K. Met Office's Decadal Prediction System  


Caihong Wen, Yan Xue, Arun Kumar   Seasonal prediction of North Pacific SSTs and PDO in the NCEP CFS Hindcasts   W70B
Bo Wu   Decadal hindcast and forecast experiments by FGOALS_gl   W12A
Klaus Wyser, Mihaela Caian, Torben Königk, Francisco J Doblas-Reyes, Hui Du, Virginie Guémas   Initialization of decadal predictions for EC-EARTH   W80B
Tamaki Yasuda, Tosiyuki Nakaegawa, Yosuke Fujii, Yuhei Takaya, Masafumi Kamachi, Tomoaki Ose   Seasonal Forecast System of Japan Meteorological Agency: Anomalous Hot Summer 2010 in Japan and Its Relationship to the Tropical SST Anomalies   W70A
Stephen Yeager, Alicia Karspeck, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Joe Tribbia, Haiyan Teng, Jerry Meehl   Verification of Decadal Forecasts: North Atlantic Decadal Prediction using CCSM4   W07B
Laure Zanna   Verification of Decadal Forecasts: Low-frequency variability and forecast skill of observed Atlantic sea surface temperatures   W07A