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Overview

The Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) aims to develop a programme of numerical experimentation for seasonal-to-interannual variability and predictability, with an emphasis on assessing and improving predictions. Research goals are to develop appropriate data assimilation, model initialization and forecasting procedures for seasonal-to-interannual predictions, with consideration of factors such as observing system evaluation, use of ensemble and probabilistic methods, statistical and empirical enhancements, and measures of forecast skill.


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Terms of reference

The terms of reference are as follows:

  • Develop a programme of numerical experimentation for seasonal-to-interannual variability and predictability, with an emphasis on assessing and improving predictions
  • Develop appropriate data assimilation, model initialization and forecasting procedures for seasonal-to-interannual predictions, considering such factors as observing system evaluation, use of ensemble and probabilistic methods, statistical and empirical enhancements, and measures of forecast skill
  • Report to the WCRP JSC on the status of seasonal-to-interannual forecasting, and liaise with the WCRP Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) and the JSC/CAS Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE)